А нынче нам нужна победа — одна на всех. Мы за ценой не постоим? Почему 2019-й может стать годом прорыва на Донбассе

После традиционно не подтвержденной официально новости о том, что ВСУ освободили поселок Чигари в Донецкой области (ныне Южное) снова появился повод поговорить о стратегии Украины по освобождению оккупированных территорий.

Почему 2019 год может стать прорывом — в материале OBOZREVATEL.UA.

И если зимой 2016 года действия ВСУ в районе Светлодарской дуги называли «ползучим наступлением», то сейчас в моде другое определение — «активная оборона». Впрочем, разница не так уже велика.

Складывается впечатление, что силы ООС медленно двигаются в «серой зоне», выбирая более удобные с точки зрения обороны и атаки позиции.

И хотя на все вопросы в Генштабе дают примерно такой ответ: «Никакого наступления нет. А слухи мы не комментируем», но информация о продвижении ВСУ все равно поступает — об этом пишут отдельные волонтеры, говорят журналисты и неформально признаются сами участники операции (хотя зачастую и просят не указывать их имен при этом).

Ряд экспертов и волонтеров считает такой подход единственно правильным в данной ситуации, другая же часть обвиняет власть в показухе и желании завоевать симпатии электората перед выборами.

Большинство же ветеранов на передовой, кажется, рады уже просто самому факту движения вперед — и не важно на сколько километров вглубь им удалось продвинуться. Не сидишь на месте и то хорошо.

Каким будет следующий шаг?

За последние несколько месяцев удалось освободить Травневое, Гладосово, Верхнеторецкое, Новоалександровку и Катериновку в Донецкой и Луганской областях. Если верить журналистам и волонтерам, то теперь к ним добавился еще и поселок Чигари, который находится совсем рядом с оккупированной Горловкой.

Все эти победы безусловно приятны, однако оставляют послевкусие какой-то недосказанности и мелковатости. С каждым днем крепнет впечатление, что раздавшиеся в плечах силы ООС уже способны на большее — освобождение более крупного населенного пункта, который составляет для боевиков большую ценность.

Понятно, что речь не идет о Донецке или Луганске, поскольку такая операция грозит новой масштабной атакой России. Однако есть и другая цель, которая могла бы быть по плечу ВСУ.

Такой целью может стать Горловка, которая находится под контролем террористов с 14 апреля 2014 года.

Кстати, недавно планами по освобождению этого населенного пункта делился и министр внутренних дел Арсен Аваков. Слова министра говорят том, что на самых верхах тоже понимают необходимость большой успешной операции.

Сил у Украины стало больше, да и плацдарм для наступления уже создан. Но есть важный нюанс, который может этому помешать.

Почему не сейчас?

Ситуация с этим населенным пунктом всегда была непростой. Основная проблема заключается в находящемся здесь химическом заводе «Стирол». Одно попадание снаряда туда — и на Донбассе может случиться экологическая катастрофа. Этот фактор повышает и без того высокие риски, которые обязательно будут учитывать при планировании операции.

Так что операция по освобождению Горловки будет принципиально отличаться от тех, что проводит Украина в последние месяцы.

По меркам Донбасса это довольно крупный город, который придется освобождать улица за улицей со всеми вытекающими отсюда неприятными последствиями: бои в ограниченном пространстве, множество огневых позиций, а к тому же укрепления, которые террористы возвели на подходах к городу за время оккупации.

Все это огромный риск, который может обернуться кровавой баней. Однако есть один аргумент, который может перевесить все риски.

Почему сейчас?

2019 год — станет своеобразным Рубиконом, который определит дальнейший вектор развития Украины.

Не секрет, что действующая власть находится в не самом простом положении. До президентских выборов остался год, до парламентских на несколько месяцев больше. Однако соцопросы подтверждают, что Порошенко и всем тем, кто сейчас у власти, придется очень сильно постараться, чтобы остаться на своих местах.

Для того, чтобы быстро изменить настроения людей нужна большая и понятная каждому победа. Что-то типа безвизового режима, хотя эффект от этого успеха уже успел сойти на нет. Поэтому нужны новые триумфы.

Может ли Украина добиться чего-то подобного на международной арене в ближайшее время? Вряд ли. О вступлении в НАТО и Евросоюз нам можно пока только мечтать. А все остальные победы, включая успехи в международных судебных баталиях с Россией, это все же не то.

Так что успехи на фронте (и обязательно с минимумом потерь с нашей стороны) это именно то, что нужно. Поэтому, если власть увидит, что другого способа поменять ситуацию нет, она может рискнуть.

И тогда нас ждет либо крупный успех и долгожданный прорыв, либо кровавая катастрофа.

Сейчас же активная защита ВСУ напоминает репетицию перед генеральным спектаклем. Противника проверяют на прочность то тут, то там.

А решатся ли на верху поднять занавес — узнаем уже скоро.

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