Москва имеет все шансы почувствовать себя в украинской шкуре: Бумеранг уже запущен, осталось дождаться его возвращения

Эффект бумеранга: Москва имеет все шансы почувствовать себя в украинской шкуре, пишет Павел Казарин в Крым.Реалии

Вчитайтесь в список из четырех пунктов.

Первое. Нужно использовать все слабые места агрессора и усугублять его проблемы, пока власти не поменяются.

Второе. Нужно координировать действия со всеми, кто недоволен действиями агрессора, потому что таких стран много.

Третье. Нужно отказаться от идеи «нормализации отношений», потому что «норма», с точки зрения противника, предполагает безоговорочную капитуляцию.

Четвертое. Нужно решать задачи выживания, искать пути обхода создаваемых нам препон. Потому что война – не время рефлексий о прошлом.

Нет, это не украинская стратегия противодействия Москве. Это краткое изложение российской позиции по американским санкциям. Авторства главы российского Совета по внешней и оборонной политике Федора Лукьянова.

Эффект бумеранга во всем его великолепии.

Москва имеет все шансы почувствовать себя в украинской шкуре. Той самой, в которой Киев вынужден жить последние четыре с половиной года. C небольшой разницей.

США не вводили войска на территорию России. Вся «американская агрессия» – это лишь санкции за российское вмешательство в дела других стран. Как соседних, так и тех, что находятся на другом конце земного шара.

Нет ничего удивительного в том, что Россия пытается притвориться жертвой. Это закономерно для любого агрессора. От рядового погромщика до целого государства.

А вот что действительно имеет значение – так это то, что российский рецепт выживания полностью повторяет украинский. И, с большой долей вероятности, именно в таком виде будет воплощаться в жизнь. В то, что нынешние обитатели Кремля решат пойти на попятный – верится с трудом.

В этом и состоит особенность авторитарных моделей. Можно сидеть на берегу реки и ждать, пока течение пронесет мимо соперников. В надежде на то, что их смоет в небытие демократическая практика переизбрания.

Для Владимира Путина Трамп уже четвертый. Первым был Клинтон, потом – два срока Буша, и столько же – у Обамы. Всегда можно уповать на то, что если с кем-то не сложились отношения, то можно дождаться преемника.

Единственное, что может этому помешать – институты. Те самые, что сохраняют преемственность политики в ключевых вопросах. Когда даже смена первого лица не приводит к ревизии принципиальных установок.

У США такие институты есть. Конгресс и Сенат вынуждают Белый дом становиться «ястребом» в тех вопросах, где он вполне готов был остаться «голубем». В попытке отделаться от обвинений в «пророссийскости» Дональду Трампу приходится корректировать свои планы.

А есть ли такие институты у Киева – вопрос, который остается открытым.

 

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