Палатки на Красной площади, сцена напротив ЦУМа, кухни в Историческом музее, «автомайдан» на Бульварном кольце: Это будет, если…

Палатки на Красной площади. Кремль готов повышать ставки.

ОМОН дубинками выбивает у россиян стремление выходить на протест. Сама идея уличных манифестаций воспринимается в России как крамола. Но в этом и состоит главная проблема России.

В российский «майдан» и правда верится с трудом. Пока рядовые бьют налогоплательщиков, их командир обещает избить автора антикоррупционных расследований.

На этом фоне сложно поверить в палатки на Красной площади. В сцену напротив ЦУМа, с которой станут выступать оппозиционеры. Не будет ни кухни в Историческом музее, ни «автомайдана» на Бульварном кольце, ни переговоров о досрочных выборах, – пишет Павел Казарин для Крым. реалии.

Проблема в том, что российская власть готова повышать ставки куда круче, чем это готовы делать горожане. Любую новую Болотную просто отдадут на растерзание «казакам» и ОМОНу. Если они не справятся – подключат армию. Состязание на прочность тестикул Кремль не решится проигрывать.

Для того чтобы противостоять левиафану, нужно быть готовым пропорционально повышать ставку – как это было в Киеве.

Избили студентов – на площадь вышли десятки тысяч.

Приняли репрессивные законы – полетели «коктейли Молотова».

Расстреляли протестующих – улица вынудила Януковича сбежать.

Тот, кто первый отступает в таком противостоянии – проигрывает.

В Москве такая схема вряд ли сработает. А потому «майдана» и правда не будет. И в этом проблема.

Потому что в Кремле так и не поняли суть Майдана.

Он не был революцией в классическом смысле – когда толпа сносит институты подчистую и затем начинает формировать все с нуля.

Майдан был восстанием против Януковича, которое, в итоге, закончилось ротацией элит.

При этом само государство устояло, а изменилась лишь архитектура внутренних взаимосвязей.

По сути, Майдан – это доведенный до экстремума запрос на эволюцию. И единственная альтернатива ему – это тотальный слом системы.

Нужно понимать, что современная Россия – при всей своей внешней монументальной стабильности – это страна, в которой с каждым днем лишь накапливаются внутренние вызовы. Конфликты между регионами и центром. Между разными группами влияния. Между людьми из президентского окружения – за доступ к бюджетным потокам.

Если нефть будет дорожать – у Москвы будет финансовый огнетушитель, чтобы тушить любые искры. А если не будет?

Система становится хрупкой не только из-за чьего-то целенаправленного действия. Не потому, что кто-то решает ее собственноручно демонтировать.

Она порой становится хрупкой в силу внутренних системных противоречий и износа. Пример Советского Союза более чем красноречив.

И в тот момент, когда она идет вразнос – все зависит от способности взять на себя ответственность. Либо в этом качестве выступают элиты, либо оппозиция. В некоторых случаях на сторону оппозиции становится улица – как это произошло в Киеве.

Но если вы уничтожили оппонентов и забили дубинками горожан, то ваши перспективы туманны.

Москва собственноручно лишила своих граждан права на субъектность. Забрав у них выборы, заморозив политическую систему, объявив любую несанкционированную властями активность преступлением.

Людей попросту отучили объединяться ради защиты того, во что они верят, внушив им, что «тем, кто наверху, лучше знать». Кремль шел на все это из страха перед «майданом», который может потребовать перемен.

Но угроза государству исходит не только от улицы – ее вполне способны нести обстоятельства.

Если население активно – оно способно помешать худшим сценариям. И будет безучастно наблюдать за происходящим – если дубинки подавили в нем любую пассионарность на уровне инстинктов.

В 1991 году именно это привело к тому, что распад Союза был похож на кабинетную игру – за пределами крупных городов улицы кишели очередями, а не митингами.

Да, в России не будет «майдана». Ни того, что с рассерженными горожанами на Болотной. Ни того, что с шахтерами, перекрывающими дороги.

Но только ничего утешительного для Кремля в этом нет. Если вы отучаете своих граждан иметь собственную точку зрения – то не ждите, что они ее проявят в критический момент.

Потому что в этом случае они не станут выходить и для того, чтобы защитить страну от нового 1991-го.

Мы это все уже проходили.

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